Tinubu: Seun Not A Good Political Analyst by Biodun556(m)

 24 hours is a long time in politics. It is too early to determine whether any of the viable candidates would win or not. Nairaland, Twitter is not a determiner of Nigerian election outcome. Market women, artisans, Alimongiris, form the bulk of Nigerian voters and many of these set of people are not on social media.

Considering the deaths of many Nigerian elites since the beginning of January 2022, if the trend continues, the political land scape may tilt in a favour or against any candidate from any region. Someone from South East might even emerge in the end enough though some of us may dislike it. Take for instance if people like Obasanjo, IBB, Buhari and the likes are lost before 2023 election, this will impact the outcome.

Now, case of Tinubu. The only challenge to Tinubu presidential ambition is Goodluck Jonathan. Going by merit, apart from education, Jonathan has wealth of experience: a former deputy governor, governor, vice president, then president of Nigeria for 6 years, he has been representing Nigeria in international missions across the World since he left office in 2015. These show that he has all it takes to rule Nigeria well even though he fumbled in his first term in office because he was new and many people took advantage of him especially some clerics.

Ohaneze indigbo has been mounting pressure on Jonathan not to contest, he is seen as threat to their own ambition which means he is viable candidate.

Number two candidate after Jonathan is Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Ignorance will make someone to under rate him in 2023 race.

All the South West governors were in Alliance for Democracy ( AD ) in 1999, by 2003, PDP conquered the South West except Lagos where Tinubu was the Governor. From Lagos state he recaptured South West from PDP, joined forces with other political parties and defeat PDP at the federal level and many other states. Tinubu is not a joke in Nigerian politics. He is a goal getter, he has the largest followers of all the candidates as of today, he knows the right button to press to crown it up, he has the money to campaign and canvass.

Yemi Osinbajo would be a work over for Tinubu. I don't see him posing any significant threat except Tinubu step down for him.

Buhari is a grateful person, he might want to compensate Osinbajo for standing by him through his sickness and help him win many legal battles like P & I D case, issue of fuel subsidy. The legislature normally use fuel subsidy to arm twist the executive; amount of fuel subsidy usually lead to delay in passage of budget especially under Saraki/Dogara led National Assembly and consequently cause fuel scarcity and incessant rise of fuel price in Nigeria. But since Buhari government is able to manipulate and change the name from fuel subsidy to landing cost which is the sole responsibility of NNPC. Importation of refined fuel was also brought under NNPC, this curtailed the power of the legislature and that's why we have been having steady supply of fuel even though it is costly. This will make many Buhari supporters to queue behind Osinbajo. But that is not significant enough to challenge Tinubu in 2023.